Dan Rusk Financial
Fri, May 1, 2026
Today
Regime
As of 2026-04-30 · config v1
Today's Macro Regime Score
R2
Reflation
Growth above median, inflation above — cyclicals, credit, hard assets bid.
Growth z
+0.82+0.18
Q3 of 4
Inflation z
+0.64+0.06
Q3 of 4
Fingerprint
67%
8/12 confirming
78
Confidence
-4 from yesterday
Regime space · 60-day path
Growth z (x) × Inflation z (y)
Today's position with the last 60 sessions of drift. Quadrant boundaries at z = 0.
Sector heatmap · today's MomVol
bearish bullish
XLK
Tech
+0.41
28%+0.20%
XLF
Financials
+1.55
13%+0.70%
XLV
Healthcare
-0.18
12%−0.10%
XLY
Cons Disc
+0.92
11%+0.50%
XLI
Industrials
+1.78
9%+1.30%
XLC
Comm Svcs
+0.66
9%+0.40%
XLP
Cons Stap
-0.84
6%−0.40%
XLE
Energy
+1.21
4%+0.90%
XLB
Materials
+0.92
3%+0.60%
XLU
Utilities
-1.12
3%−0.60%
VNQ
REITs
-0.34
2%−0.20%
Today's basket
Reflation · long-only · equal-weight in quad
Reflation regime · cyclicals + credit + commodities lean · TLT and defensives held back
SPYS&P 500+1.4213%
IWMRussell 2000+1.6613%
XLIIndustrials+1.7810%
XLEEnergy+1.2110%
XLFFinancials+1.5510%
XLBMaterials+0.927%
HYGHY Credit+1.0810%
EMBEM Bonds+0.747%
USOOil+0.967%
EEMEM+1.347%
EFAEAFE+0.816%
Exit conditions
- ▸Macro Regime Score transitions out of R2
- ▸HY OAS widens >25 bps in 5 sessions
- ▸Fingerprint score falls below 50%
Today looks most like…
2017-08-14
Q3 2017 — sync global growth, low vol
91%
Growth z
+0.78
Inflation z
+0.61
Fwd 30d
2.4%
Fwd 90d
6.1%
2021-03-22
Q1 2021 — vaccine reopening rally
84%
Growth z
+0.94
Inflation z
+0.71
Fwd 30d
1.8%
Fwd 90d
5.2%
2010-04-12
Q2 2010 — pre-flash-crash, EU sovereign tremors
79%
Growth z
+0.66
Inflation z
+0.55
Fwd 30d
-1.1%
Fwd 90d
-8.3%
Similarity weighted across growth z, inflation z, and the 12-check fingerprint signature. Forward returns shown are SPY total return from the analog date.
Growth
Q3 of 4
+0.82
z, 20y window
Inflation
Q3 of 4
+0.64
z, 20y window
Growth ROC
ROC1 · YoY
+0.46
ROC2 · accel
+0.06
Inflation ROC
ROC1 · YoY
+0.19
ROC2 · accel
-0.24
5-Year Regime History
R1 GoldilocksR2 ReflationR3 StagflationR4 Deflation
Cross-asset fingerprint · 8 / 12 confirming
Copper / Gold
expects up · saw up
+1.4%
DXY direction
expects any · saw down
-0.3%
HY OAS
expects tightening · saw tightening
286 bps
IG OAS
expects tightening · saw flat
94 bps
10y-2y curve
expects steepening · saw steepening
+18 bps
VIX level
expects sub-18 · saw sub-18
14.2
Breadth >50d
expects >60% · saw 67%
67%
IWM / SPY
expects outperform · saw outperform
+0.8%
XLI / XLP
expects outperform · saw outperform
+1.2%
XLK / SPY
expects outperform · saw underperform
-0.4%
Gold direction
expects soft · saw firm
+0.6%
USD vs real yields
expects soft · saw mixed
—
What changed today
- Growth zNAPM beat consensus (52.4 vs 51.0)+0.18
- RegimeMacro Regime Score unchanged (Reflation)—
- ConfidencePersistence score eased; breadth flat−4
- Fingerprint8 / 12 cross-asset checks confirming, up from 7+8 pp
- HY OASSpreads tightened; 286 bps−7 bps