Dan Rusk Financial
Fri, May 1, 2026
Morning brief · 2026-04-30
Overview
Everything in 30 seconds
SPY+0.61%
565.42
S&P 500
QQQ+0.34%
491.18
Nasdaq 100
IWM+1.12%
224.71
Russell
10Y-0.24%
4.18
10Y yield
2Y-0.11%
3.92
2Y yield
VIX-1.85%
14.20
VIX
DXY-0.33%
101.84
Dollar
WTI+1.42%
84.10
Oil
GLD+0.08%
312.55
Gold
BTC+2.14%
89.2k
Bitcoin
Today's Macro Regime Score
R2
Reflation
Click to open the deep regime view
Growth z
+0.82
Inflation z
+0.64
Fingerprint
8/12
78
Confidence
Today's brief
Reflation regime holds; cyclicals confirming, tech narrowly diverging
Read full brief
Your book
$1690k
+$550.7k unrealized+6.32% since regime entry
Flagged overnight
3 signals
high
−0.4%
Tech leadership narrowing
XLK / SPY ratio underperforming for the third consecutive session — a regime-fingerprint failure.
med
−$42.1B
Liquidity Pulse rolled over MoM
Net liquidity −$42.1B over 30 days. TGA build is the swing variable; watch Treasury issuance schedule.
low
−1.41
TLT MomVol at −1.41
Long-duration is the largest counter-regime exposure in the watchlist; rolling stops or partial trim consistent with playbook.
Today's basket
Reflation · long-only · equal-weight in quad
Reflation regime · cyclicals + credit + commodities lean · TLT and defensives held back
SPYS&P 500+1.4213%
IWMRussell 2000+1.6613%
XLIIndustrials+1.7810%
XLEEnergy+1.2110%
XLFFinancials+1.5510%
XLBMaterials+0.927%
HYGHY Credit+1.0810%
EMBEM Bonds+0.747%
USOOil+0.967%
EEMEM+1.347%
EFAEAFE+0.816%
Exit conditions
- ▸Macro Regime Score transitions out of R2
- ▸HY OAS widens >25 bps in 5 sessions
- ▸Fingerprint score falls below 50%
Today looks most like…
2017-08-14
Q3 2017 — sync global growth, low vol
91%
Growth z
+0.78
Inflation z
+0.61
Fwd 30d
2.4%
Fwd 90d
6.1%
2021-03-22
Q1 2021 — vaccine reopening rally
84%
Growth z
+0.94
Inflation z
+0.71
Fwd 30d
1.8%
Fwd 90d
5.2%
2010-04-12
Q2 2010 — pre-flash-crash, EU sovereign tremors
79%
Growth z
+0.66
Inflation z
+0.55
Fwd 30d
-1.1%
Fwd 90d
-8.3%
Similarity weighted across growth z, inflation z, and the 12-check fingerprint signature. Forward returns shown are SPY total return from the analog date.
Sector heatmap · today's MomVol
bearish bullish
XLK
Tech
+0.41
28%+0.20%
XLF
Financials
+1.55
13%+0.70%
XLV
Healthcare
-0.18
12%−0.10%
XLY
Cons Disc
+0.92
11%+0.50%
XLI
Industrials
+1.78
9%+1.30%
XLC
Comm Svcs
+0.66
9%+0.40%
XLP
Cons Stap
-0.84
6%−0.40%
XLE
Energy
+1.21
4%+0.90%
XLB
Materials
+0.92
3%+0.60%
XLU
Utilities
-1.12
3%−0.60%
VNQ
REITs
-0.34
2%−0.20%
Liquidity Pulse
$6.01T
Week-on-week+$18.4B
Month-on-month−$42.1B
What changed today
- Growth zNAPM beat consensus (52.4 vs 51.0)+0.18
- RegimeMacro Regime Score unchanged (Reflation)—
- ConfidencePersistence score eased; breadth flat−4
- Fingerprint8 / 12 cross-asset checks confirming, up from 7+8 pp
- HY OASSpreads tightened; 286 bps−7 bps