Curve

As of 2026-04-30

Treasury yield curve

2y / 10y spread +26 bps · steepening for the 6th consecutive session.

MOVE Index

84.6

-3.2 WoW

Rates vol benign. Front-end implied vol compressed; long-end carries the residual term premium.

Real yields & breakevens · 12 mo

10y TIPS yield + 10y inflation breakeven

Forward rate probabilities

From SOFR futures · 25 bp moves

Meeting	Cut 25	Hold	Hike 25
Jun 2026	32%	62%	6%
Jul 2026	41%	54%	5%
Sep 2026	58%	40%	2%
Nov 2026	67%	31%	2%
Dec 2026	72%	27%	1%