Reflation regime holds; cyclicals confirming, tech narrowly diverging

Macro Regime Score remains in Reflation today, with growth z at +0.82 and inflation z at +0.64. Initial Claims continued to print soft, NAPM ticked above consensus, and the Cleveland nowcast is nudging the inflation read higher rather than lower. Cross-asset confirmation improved overnight: 8 of 12 fingerprint checks are now in agreement with the regime call, up from 7. Cyclicals over defensives, small over large, and HY tightening are all behaving as expected. The two persistent drags are large-cap tech narrowly underperforming and gold refusing to soften — both consistent with a more idiosyncratic late-stage reflation than a textbook one. Liquidity Pulse has rolled lower on the month (−$42B) but is still pushing higher week-on-week (+$18B); the TGA build is the marginal weight. Front-end positioning shifted toward more cuts priced for September, with the 10y / 2y still steepening. The team's working bias remains pro-risk, MomVol scores >1 on the cyclical complex, with a watchful eye on tech leadership and any meaningful firming of long real yields.